Dampak Persepsi Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Harga Emas terhadap Keputusan Investasi Jangka Panjang dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh persepsi inflasi, suku bunga, dan harga emas terhadap keputusan investasi jangka panjang serta implikasinya terhadap persepsi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Berbeda dengan penelitian sebelumnya yang umumnya menggunakan indikator makroekonomi objektif, studi ini menekankan pendekatan berbasis persepsi individual untuk memahami perilaku investasi dari perspektif behavioral finance. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif eksploratif dan metode Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS), data dikumpulkan dari 89 responden investor aktif melalui kuesioner daring. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa persepsi harga emas berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap keputusan investasi, sementara persepsi inflasi dan suku bunga tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan. Selain itu, keputusan investasi tidak terbukti memediasi hubungan antara persepsi makroekonomi dan persepsi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa faktor aset safe-haven dan bias persepsi lebih dominan dalam membentuk keputusan investasi jangka panjang dibandingkan indikator makroekonomi objektif. Penelitian ini berkontribusi pada pengembangan literatur behavioral finance di negara berkembang serta memberikan implikasi bagi perumusan kebijakan literasi investasi berbasis perilaku.
 
This study aims to analyze the influence of perceptions of inflation, interest rates, and gold prices on long-term investment decisions and their implications for perceptions of economic growth in Indonesia. Unlike previous studies that generally use objective macroeconomic indicators, this study emphasizes an individual perception-based approach to understanding investment behavior from a behavioral finance perspective. Using an exploratory quantitative approach and the Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) method, data were collected from 89 active investor respondents through an online questionnaire. The results show that perceptions of gold prices have a positive and significant effect on investment decisions, while perceptions of inflation and interest rates do not show a significant effect. Furthermore, investment decisions are not proven to mediate the relationship between macroeconomic perceptions and perceptions of economic growth. These findings indicate that safe-haven assets and perceptual bias are more dominant in shaping long-term investment decisions than objective macroeconomic indicators. This study contributes to the development of behavioral finance literature in developing countries and provides implications for the formulation of behavior-based investment literacy policies.